Macro Cycle Score — What it means

The Macro Cycle Score is a weighted sum of macro and market signals. Higher = more favorable (accumulation); lower = more risky (take profits/defensive). Range is open-ended but typically sits between about -6 and +6 in practice.

Score → Action

• ≥ +3: Green — Accumulate / DCA
• -2 to +2: Yellow — Hold / Wait
• ≤ -3: Red — De-risk / Take profits

A score of -1 is within the neutral band and simply maps to “Hold / Wait.”

Inputs (with typical impact)

• Yield curve (10y-2y): inverted is bearish
• M2 momentum: rising is bullish, falling is bearish
• VIX: high is contrarian bullish, very low is caution
• Jobless claims trend: rising is bearish, falling bullish
• HY spreads: widening is bearish, tightening mild bullish
• Credit/GDP trend: falling is bearish, rising mild bullish
• Fear & Greed: extreme fear adds bullish, extreme greed bearish
• BTC distance to 200D/200W MAs: below = bullish, far above = caution

Notes on the card list which signals drove the current score.