MACRO CYCLE COMPOSITE SCORE
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Analyzing macro conditions...
This score measures macro stress across 5 dimensions on a 0-100 scale. Lower scores indicate healthier economic conditions (expansion); higher scores signal rising stress and potential crisis. Based on Ray Dalio's Big Cycle framework.
Money & Debt
Weight: 30%
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Politics
Weight: 20%
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Geopolitics
Weight: 25%
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Nature
Weight: 10%
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Technology
Weight: 15%
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FORECAST & HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Composite Score History
Historical Analog
Compares today's stress profile across all 5 pillars to 15 historical reference periods using cosine similarity. The match shows which past environment most closely resembles current conditions — not a prediction, but historical context.
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SUGGESTED ASSET ALLOCATION
Portfolio weights shift based on the composite score — lower stress favors growth assets (equities, crypto); higher stress favors defensive assets (gold, cash, bonds).
DALIO BIG DEBT CYCLE STAGE
BUSINESS CYCLE POSITION
Uses 5 leading and 2 coincident economic indicators to detect the current business cycle phase. Leading indicators (claims, housing, manufacturing hours, yield curve, sentiment) signal future direction; coincident indicators (industrial production, payrolls) confirm current conditions.
KEY RISKS
Analyzing risks...
METHODOLOGY
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This dashboard implements Ray Dalio's "Big Cycle" framework, scoring five interacting macro forces to produce a composite stress index from 0 (expansion) to 100 (crisis).
| Pillar | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Money & Debt | 30% | Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy, credit conditions |
| Politics | 20% | Social cohesion, inequality, public sentiment |
| Geopolitics | 25% | Global order, trade, energy security, conflict |
| Nature | 10% | Climate impact, natural disasters, food security |
| Technology | 15% | Innovation cycle, tech valuations, digital assets |
Scoring: Each metric is normalized to 0-100 based on historical ranges and direction (higher-is-worse, lower-is-worse, or extreme-is-worse). Pillar scores are weighted averages of their metrics. The composite is a weighted sum of pillars with momentum adjustment.
Data Sources: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), US Treasury Fiscal Data, CoinGecko, NASA GISS, FEMA. All 30 metrics use live data — no placeholders.
Allocation: Portfolio weights interpolate between defensive (high score) and growth-oriented (low score) bands based on the composite score.