Price $78,446 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,370 | +58.9% above |
| Realized Price | $53,163 | +47.6% above |
| STH cost basis | $70,932 | +10.6% above |
| True Market Mean | $76,523 | +2.5% above |
model net +0.26 ← MVRV-Z +0.39·5%, STH/LTH Realized +0.04·3%
model net -0.24 ← VaR/CVaR -0.80·5%, GARCH Vol -0.08·7%, Jump Diffusion -0.10·4%, Crash Signal +0.00·3%
Price is soft (-37% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (+29,466 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+1,672 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.26. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Options market is call-heavy (0.53) — downside hedges are cheap and expiring; options desks aren't positioned for a crash. This is a live read of Deribit put/call open interest — current sentiment color, NOT a backtested model input (options history isn't freely available to validate it as a signal).
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.19 → HOLD BTC (EARLY RECOVERY, 70% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) lean defensive. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 2 read constructive and 1 cautionary: the near-term picture is also firming. Deep value, but the model has not yet called the turn.
This page was written on 2026-09-09 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.