Where we are — 2026-09-23

As of 2026-09-23, the Bitcoin cycle model says Hold BTC — holding bitcoin and keeping your regular buy going. Bitcoin is at $86,205, -30.9% from its all-time high, and the cycle score is -0.190.

Across three completed Bitcoin cycles it beat buy-and-hold in three of three (3.25x, 3.08x, 2.38x); this cycle so far it drew down -26.8% against -53.1% for holding. It also lost less than holding in 15/18 of the walk-forward folds tested; that count alone is a consistency check, not proof of timing skill (a no-timing portfolio at the same market exposure scores the same). On fold-by-fold return, the more informative test, it beat holding in only 12/18 — the edge is cycle-length, not month-to-month. The current cycle is still open: it reads 1.95x as of 2026-09-22, and an open cycle's multiple moves with the price. These figures come from a backtest, not from the live record; the live record is published in full on the call ledger.

Current call

Hold BTC

Model action

Hold

As of

2026-09-23

Cycle score

-0.190

Bitcoin price

$86,205

Below all-time high

-30.9%

Market state

EARLY_RECOVERY

Regime

bull

Alt-season index

35/100 — BTC Dominant

Macro composite

52