Price $86,205 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,426 | +74.4% above |
| Realized Price | $53,454 | +61.3% above |
| STH cost basis | $72,586 | +18.8% above |
| True Market Mean | $76,987 | +12.0% above |
model net +0.28 ← MVRV-Z +0.40·5%, STH/LTH Realized -0.01·3%
model net -0.54 ← Whale Accumulation -0.54·4%
model net -0.17 ← VaR/CVaR -0.80·5%, Jump Diffusion +0.20·4%, GARCH Vol -0.09·7%, Crash Signal +0.00·3%
Price is soft (-31% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (+148,838 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+2,098 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.28. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.19 → HOLD BTC (EARLY RECOVERY, 70% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) lean defensive. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 1 read constructive and 2 cautionary: on-chain says deep value, while flows and derivatives say the turn is not yet confirmed. Deep value, but the model has not yet called the turn.
This page was written on 2026-09-23 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.