Price $84,434 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,424 | +70.8% above |
| Realized Price | $53,465 | +57.9% above |
| STH cost basis | $72,599 | +16.3% above |
| True Market Mean | $76,997 | +9.7% above |
model net +0.20 ← MVRV-Z +0.29·5%, STH/LTH Realized -0.00·3%
model net -0.19 ← VaR/CVaR -0.80·5%, GARCH Vol -0.13·7%, Jump Diffusion +0.20·4%, Crash Signal +0.00·3%
Price is soft (-32% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (+188,795 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+2,142 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.20. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Loss realization is easing — SOPR is climbing back toward 1.0 (0.999, from 0.996 30d ago). Sellers are running out, though it hasn't fully healed above 1.0 yet.
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.17 → WAIT IN STABLES (EARLY RECOVERY, 70% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) lean defensive. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 2 read constructive and 1 cautionary: the near-term picture is also firming. Deep value, but the model has not yet called the turn.
This page was written on 2026-09-24 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.