Price $83,675 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,396 | +69.4% above |
| Realized Price | $53,586 | +56.1% above |
| STH cost basis | $73,247 | +14.2% above |
| True Market Mean | $77,158 | +8.4% above |
model net +0.26 ← MVRV-Z +0.42·5%, STH/LTH Realized +0.01·3%
model net -0.09 ← GARCH Vol -0.11·7%, Crash Signal +0.00·3%
Price is soft (-33% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (+135,208 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+2,624 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.26. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.14 → HOLD BTC (EXPANSION, 80% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) lean defensive. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 2 read constructive and 1 cautionary: the near-term picture is also firming. Deep value, but the model has not yet called the turn.
This page was written on 2026-09-30 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.