Price $84,777 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,377 | +71.7% above |
| Realized Price | $53,637 | +58.1% above |
| STH cost basis | $73,577 | +15.2% above |
| True Market Mean | $77,231 | +9.8% above |
model net +0.23 ← MVRV-Z +0.33·5%, STH/LTH Realized +0.00·3%
model net -0.07 ← GARCH Vol -0.09·7%, Crash Signal -0.01·3%
Price is soft (-32% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (+132,253 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+2,956 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.23. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.15 → HOLD BTC (EXPANSION, 80% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) lean defensive. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 2 read constructive and 1 cautionary: the near-term picture is also firming. Deep value, but the model has not yet called the turn.
This page was written on 2026-10-02 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.