Price $81,805 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,317 | +65.9% above |
| Realized Price | $53,838 | +51.9% above |
| STH cost basis | $74,373 | +10.0% above |
| True Market Mean | $77,477 | +5.6% above |
model net +0.27 ← MVRV-Z +0.42·5%, STH/LTH Realized +0.04·3%
model net -0.17 ← GARCH Vol -0.21·7%, Crash Signal +0.00·3%
Price is soft (-35% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (-1,118 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+2,987 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.27. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.04 → HOLD BTC (EXPANSION, 70% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) are balanced. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 2 read constructive and 1 cautionary: the near-term picture is also firming.
This page was written on 2026-10-13 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.