Price $81,269 trades above every cost-basis gate — an unambiguous uptrend. Structurally healthy.
| Gate | Level | Spot vs gate |
|---|---|---|
| LTH cost basis | $49,278 | +64.9% above |
| Realized Price | $53,857 | +50.9% above |
| STH cost basis | $74,485 | +9.1% above |
| True Market Mean | $77,508 | +4.9% above |
model net +0.24 ← MVRV-Z +0.35·5%, STH/LTH Realized +0.05·3%
model net +0.00 ← Crash Signal +0.00·3%
Price is soft (-35% below ATH), but smart money is accumulating beneath it — long-term holders net-flat (-22,929 net over 30d), coins leaving exchanges (+2,898 BTC/day net withdrawal), model on-chain net +0.24. Coins are moving to strong hands: the transfer that clusters near cycle lows. It doesn't call the low, and it's not the model's buy signal yet — it's the footprint that tends to precede one.
Confirms:
Denies:
The full model composite is -0.02 → HOLD BTC (EARLY RECOVERY, 70% confidence) — its structural signals (valuation, regime, mining, macro) are balanced. But of the three near-term confirmation lenses shown here (a subset of the model), 2 read constructive and 0 cautionary: the near-term picture is also firming.
This page was written on 2026-10-18 and has not been edited since. The model's full daily call history, including the days it was wrong, is on the call ledger.