The macro cycle score
The Crypto page shows a card called
Macro Cycle Score. This page explains what that number is. It is a smaller,
separate lens on macro conditions — not the six-phase cycle-navigator engine that drives
the main call elsewhere on this site, and not a return or drawdown figure.
It is a sum of eight macro and market inputs — each one adds a fixed
amount, not a weighted contribution — nudging the score up (more favorable toward
accumulation) or down (more cautious, favoring defense). Higher is more
favorable; lower is more cautious. The range isn't open-ended: it's bounded by
the fixed amounts each input can add, and in practice runs roughly minus six to
plus eight.
Score → action
- Plus three or higher — green. Accumulate / DCA.
- Everything in between — yellow. Hold / wait. Yellow isn't a fixed
band; it's every score that clears neither the green nor the red threshold —
including a score of plus two-and-a-half or minus two-and-a-half, which one
input (the credit-to-GDP trend) can produce by adding half a point. A score of
minus one reads the same as any other yellow score: hold, don't chase a move in
either direction.
- Minus three or lower — red. De-risk / take profits.
What feeds it
Eight inputs, each with a typical directional read baked in. None of them is the
whole picture by itself — summing them is the point.
- Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year). An inverted curve reads bearish.
- M2 momentum. Rising reads bullish; falling reads bearish.
- VIX. A high reading is contrarian-bullish; a very low reading is a
caution flag (complacency).
- Jobless-claims trend. Rising reads bearish; falling reads bullish.
- High-yield credit spreads. Widening reads bearish; tightening reads
mildly bullish.
- Credit-to-GDP trend. Falling reads bearish; rising reads mildly
bullish.
- Fear & Greed. Extreme fear adds to the bullish side; extreme greed
adds to the bearish side — this input is deliberately contrarian.
- BTC distance to its 200-day / 200-week moving averages. Trading below
them reads bullish (a mean-reversion setup); trading far above them is a caution
flag.
The card on the Crypto page lists which of these
signals is actually driving today's reading. This page describes the mechanism, not a
live number — check the card itself for the current score.