The model's own live reading of the signals that carry weight today, plus a running record of on-chain metrics we wired in, tested, measured, and in most cases rejected.
Most published writing about on-chain metrics explains what a metric means. Almost none of it says what a model currently makes of it, or what happened when someone actually put the metric in and measured the result. These pages are both of those things: a live reading where a signal carries weight today, and lab notes — mostly negative results — where it does not.
Each page below is the model's own weighted reading of one signal — score, effective weight, contribution to today's composite — regenerated on every daily refresh.
How far Bitcoin trades from its 200-week moving average, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns that distance today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored the 200-week distance at +0.402 (constructive) at an effective weight of 0.036.
Bitcoin's position in its weekly Gaussian channel, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored the Gaussian channel at −0.400 (cautionary) at an effective weight of 0.020.
Where Bitcoin sits in its halving cycle, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns that position today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored the halving clock at −0.539 (cautionary) at an effective weight of 0.030.
Bitcoin's monthly RSI divergence state, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored monthly RSI divergence at −0.261 (cautionary) at an effective weight of 0.070.
Bitcoin's market-value-to-realised-value ratio, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored MVRV at +0.379 (constructive) at an effective weight of 0.100.
Bitcoin's Pi Cycle Top indicator, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored Pi Cycle at 0.000 (neutral) at an effective weight of 0.012.
Bitcoin's 90-day rolling Sharpe ratio, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored the rolling Sharpe ratio at 0.000 (neutral) at an effective weight of 0.040.
Bitcoin's spent output profit ratio, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored SOPR at 0.000 (neutral) at an effective weight of 0.045.
Bitcoin's short-term and long-term holder cost bases, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model draws from the gap between them. On 2026-08-25 the model scored the cohort cost-basis split at +0.011 (constructive) at an effective weight of 0.030.
Bitcoin's Stochastic RSI, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored Stochastic RSI at −0.600 (cautionary) at an effective weight of 0.030.
Bitcoin's Value Days Destroyed multiple, with the score, weight and composite contribution the Fraktalicious cycle model assigns it today. On 2026-08-25 the model scored the VDD multiple at 0.000 (neutral) at an effective weight of 0.022.
Reserve Risk prices long-term-holder conviction against the market. We tested it inside our model, measured it, and it made the model worse — so it carries zero weight.
A falling dollar really does precede Bitcoin strength, in every cycle we can measure. We swept it into our model at three weights and every one of them failed the out-of-sample test — so it carries zero weight.
When recent buyers start selling at a loss, a bottom is usually near. That is true, and our model already knew it — adding this signal made the model worse, so it carries zero weight.
This index grows slowly and on purpose. A page appears here only once it carries a measurement we actually ran, not because a metric exists.