Cycle State
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YOUR ACTION PLAN
QUICK DECISIONS
BUY MORE?
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TAKE PROFIT?
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USE LEVERAGE?
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ALTS OK?
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ALLOCATION GUIDE
BTC
ETH
ALTS
STABLES
ACTIVE TRIGGERS
⛏️ BTC Mining Production Cost
CYCLE FLOOR
Production Cost
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BTC Price
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Price / Cost Ratio
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Hash Ribbon
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Puell Multiple
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Diff. Ribbon
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Hash Price
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Network Hashrate
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Model Score
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CYCLE POSITION (Price vs Production Cost)
EXTREME BUY
FAIR
CAUTION
SELL
0.5x1.0x1.5x2.0x3.0x4.0x+
Bitcoin Dominance
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Ethereum Dominance
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Stablecoin Market Cap Share
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NUPL (BTC)
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MVRV-Z (BTC)
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Fear & Greed Index
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Short-Term Signal (Day-Week)
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Mid-Term Signal (Week-Month)
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Long-Term Signal (Macro)
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Model Backtest BTC 2012–Present
Shows what our model would have said at every point in BTC history.
Cyan/pink/lavender line = BTC price, colored by model reading.
Lavender line (right axis) = Model Score — a contrarian signal that goes UP at bottoms (buy opportunities) and DOWN at tops (sell signals).
Labels like "Heavy DCA" and "De-risk" show the model's recommendation at that moment. Check if the model was right by seeing what price did next.
Price Projections 18-Month Forward
Four models predict where BTC price goes from here. White = Ensemble (accuracy-weighted consensus).
All values are projected USD price — line UP = price rises.
Cycle Projection
Composite Score (-1 bearish → +1 bullish). Score UP = favorable buying conditions, not price direction. This is a contrarian signal.
Composite:
BTC Price + Gaussian Channel
Market State Machine (Structural Indicators)
DCA: --
Leverage: --
Risk: --
Weeks in state: --
Next check: --
Monte Carlo Forecast (BTC Price Fan Chart)
Technical & Reversal Signals
RSI (14)
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StochRSI %K/%D
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Pi Cycle Gap
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Data Sources
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Sector Leaders — Technical Signals
AI Intelligence
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Analyst Intel (Discord)
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Support: --
Resistance: --
Social Sentiment & Trends
Alt Season Meter
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SIGNAL BREAKDOWN
Action: --
SOCIAL INTELLIGENCE
Discord Analyst Feed
Trending Coins
No trending data available. Twitter/X feed pending configuration.
Consensus
Analyzing signals...
BUSINESS CYCLE (ISM PMI)
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Crypto Implication
Action
Phase Timeline
Historical Pattern:
INVESTMENT THESIS — SIGNAL SYNTHESIS ENGINE
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DCA
Conviction
Scenario Analysis
Price Zone Framework
| Price Zone | DCA Rate | Rationale |
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What Changes the Call
AI ORACLE — INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
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1-Week Outlook
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1-Month Outlook
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3-Month Outlook
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ACTION GUIDANCE
RISK FACTORS
Support:
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Resistance:
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Model Rating:
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MODEL INTELLIGENCE
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Signal Performance
Accuracy by Regime
Cycle Event Accuracy
MODEL LEARNING TIMELINE
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SHORT SIGNAL DETECTOR
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GARCH Volatility Model
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HMM Regime Detection
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Cross-Asset Correlations (Copula)
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Risk Models (Kelly + VaR/CVaR)
Kelly: --
VaR99: --
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Jump-Diffusion & Bayesian Priors
Jump λ: --
Posterior Sharpe: --
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