Distance from the 200-week moving average

How stretched price is against its own four-year mean, read as a percentile

On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored the 200-week distance at +0.402 — constructive — and gave it an effective weight of 0.036. That is a contribution of +0.0145 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the 6th-largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.

What the 200-week distance is

The 200-week moving average is the mean closing price of the last 1,400 days. It is the slowest trend line in common use on Bitcoin, and it is popular for one blunt reason: price has spent very little of its history below it, and the weeks it did spend there were the worst weeks of each bear market.

The measurement here is not the average itself but the distance from it — price divided by the average, as a percentage. Hundreds of percent above is a stretched market; at or below zero is one trading at or under what the average buyer of the last four years paid.

How this model uses it

The raw distance is not what gets scored. It is first converted to a percentile against its own trailing four years — 1,460 days — and pushed through a sigmoid whose centre shifts with the cycle number. The reason is the same one that governs MVRV: the distance that meant “top” in 2013 is several hundred percentage points away from the distance that meant “top” in 2021, so a fixed ceiling is a rule that fires once and then goes quiet for a decade.

A second, much smaller term uses the 200-day average as a nudge rather than a verdict: more than 20% below it adds 0.15 to the score; more than 40% above it subtracts 0.10. The long average decides, the short one adjusts.

This is a level signal, so its weight is regime-scaled and ramped. In a bull market it is damped to a fifth of nominal while price is well off the highs and restored toward 0.55 of nominal as price reaches the all-time high — expensive is normal mid-bull and is evidence at the high. In a bear it is nearly doubled and in accumulation exactly doubled, because below the 200-week average this signal is the constructive one.

Where today sits in its own history

Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.

What this does not tell you

• the 200-week distance is one of the 15 signals that carried weight on 2026-08-25. On most days it is not the signal that decides anything, and the composite regularly disagrees with it.
• It cannot speak for the first four years of the record. A 1,400-day average needs 1,400 days of price, so this signal is simply absent until roughly mid-2016 and has never scored the 2013 cycle top. Any claim about its behaviour at tops rests on three of them, not four.
• It is price measured against a lagged copy of itself, so unlike an on-chain cost basis it adds no information the price series does not already contain. Whatever value it has comes from the normalisation, not from the input — which is a reason to keep its base weight small, and it is one of the smaller ones in the table.
• The number that drives the model's allocation is the composite, not this signal. Today's published composite is −0.0060. The current call, and every call before it, is on the call ledger — hash-chained the day it was made and never edited.