Market value to realised value, scored as a cycle signal
On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored MVRV at +0.379 — constructive — and gave it an effective weight of 0.100. That is a contribution of +0.0379 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.
MVRV is Bitcoin's market capitalisation divided by its realised capitalisation. Realised cap values every coin at the price of the block in which it last moved, so it behaves like an on-chain cost basis for the whole supply rather than a spot valuation.
The ratio is therefore a measure of aggregate unrealised profit. MVRV of 2 means the average coin in existence is worth twice what it last changed hands for. Historically cycle tops have printed high MVRV and cycle bottoms have printed MVRV near or below 1 — the point at which the average holder is underwater.
This model does not score MVRV against fixed thresholds, because the level that marked a top last cycle has not marked one since. Each completed cycle has peaked at a lower MVRV than the cycle before it, so a fixed ceiling is a rule that worked once and then quietly stopped firing. The signal is percentile-normalised instead: what matters is where today's ratio sits against its own trailing distribution, not against a number somebody wrote down in a previous cycle.
MVRV belongs to the model's level family — the signals that answer “how expensive is this” rather than “what is it doing right now”. Level weights are regime-scaled: they are damped hard during a mid-bull advance, where elevated valuation is normal and not a sell, and restored as price approaches the all-time high, where the same reading is evidence. That is why the effective weight shown above moves from day to day while the base weight does not.
The score above is on the model's internal −1 to +1 scale, where positive is constructive for accumulation and negative is cautionary. It is multiplied by the effective weight to give the contribution — the actual amount this one metric pushed today's composite.
Measured on this site's own frozen history, the peak reading of each completed cycle was 5.884 in 2013 (2013-11-18), then 4.717 in 2017 (2017-12-07), then 3.958 in 2021 (2021-02-21). Today's reading is 1.484. The current cycle is not finished, so it is not in that list — a running high is not a peak until the cycle that contains it is over.
Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Score today | +0.379 |
| Percentile of that score in its own history | 60.4% |
| Most constructive reading on record | +0.957 · 2014-11-01 |
| Most cautionary reading on record | −0.884 · 2021-03-11 |
| Days it carried weight | 5,051 of 5,051 |
| Share of those days its score changed | 97.8% |
| Mean effective weight, over the days it was active | 0.0505 |
| Share of all weight the model assigned, averaged over every day | 8.9% |
For reference, the raw series has ranged from 0.564 (2015-01-14) to 5.884 (2013-11-18) across 5,051 days.