Pi Cycle Top indicator

The famous top signal, deliberately given a small vote

On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored Pi Cycle at 0.000 — neutral — and gave it an effective weight of 0.012. That is a contribution of 0.0000 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the 12th-largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.

What Pi Cycle is

Pi Cycle compares two moving averages of daily closes: the 111-day average, and twice the 350-day average. The indicator “fires” when the fast line crosses up through the slow one, and its reputation comes from having done so within a few days of the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks.

The quantity this page tracks is the distance between those two lines as a percentage. Negative means the 111-day average is still below twice the 350-day one; zero is the cross.

How this model uses it

The model gives Pi Cycle a deliberately small vote. Its weight was cut from 0.12 to 0.04 as “massively overweighted”, and a hard override built on top of it was removed at the same time — the code's own comment calls that gate “a bandaid for the overweighting”. In a bear market the weight is cut to three tenths of that again, and in accumulation to a fifth.

In the graded model it is effectively one-sided. A cross scores −0.95; as the lines converge the score walks up through −0.7 and −0.4 toward zero. The most positive value it can ever produce is +0.1.

The most important tier is the one that scores exactly zero: a wide gap between the two averages. An earlier version scored a wide gap as bullish, and in 2021 Pi Cycle sat more than 40% away from its cross and pushed the composite up through a double top. Distance from a top indicator is not evidence of safety, and this model now says nothing rather than saying something reassuring.

Where today sits in its own history

Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.

What this does not tell you

• Pi Cycle is one of the 15 signals that carried weight on 2026-08-25. On most days it is not the signal that decides anything, and the composite regularly disagrees with it.
• The entire public case for Pi Cycle is three observations. Three cycle tops, one indicator, no out-of-sample test that is not simply the next cycle. Its weight here is sized for that — it cannot decide anything on its own, and on most days its contribution rounds to nothing.
• The version scored in the graded replay is not the version shown elsewhere on this site. The live display path scores Pi Cycle two-sided, going as high as +0.6 when the averages are far apart, and adds an urgency penalty as a cross approaches. Neither of those behaviours exists in the graded model, so neither is covered by any backtested figure. Every number on this page comes from the graded replay.
• Both inputs are moving averages of the same price series, so the indicator carries no information beyond price — its value, if any, is entirely in the shape of the transform.
• The number that drives the model's allocation is the composite, not this signal. Today's published composite is −0.0060. The current call, and every call before it, is on the call ledger — hash-chained the day it was made and never edited.