Bitcoin SOPR (spent output profit ratio)

Whether the coins that moved today moved at a profit

On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored SOPR at 0.000 — neutral — and gave it an effective weight of 0.045. That is a contribution of 0.0000 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the 13th-largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.

What SOPR is

SOPR divides the value of every coin spent on a given day by the value those same coins had when they last moved. Above 1, the average coin that changed hands did so at a profit; below 1, at a loss.

It is the one metric on this site that measures behaviour rather than position. A valuation ratio tells you what the whole supply is worth on paper; SOPR only counts coins that actually transacted, so it answers a narrower and more immediate question — what did the people who acted today actually realise?

The level that matters is 1 exactly. A market that keeps bouncing off 1 from above is one where holders refuse to sell at a loss. A market that spends weeks below it is one where they have stopped refusing.

How this model uses it

The scoring is contrarian and two-sided, and the tiers are asymmetric: the strongest constructive reading begins below 0.92, where loss-taking is heavy, and the strongest cautionary one above 1.10, where profit-taking is. A deliberately flat band sits either side of 1, because a market realising a percent or two of profit is a market doing nothing in particular.

One structural detail is worth stating plainly because it changes when this signal gets loud. The weight table files SOPR under the structural tier, but the code's category map assigns it to the momentum family, and the family is what the regime scaler reads. The practical effect: SOPR's weight is untouched in a bull market or a parabola, raised by half in a bear, and doubled in accumulation. It is quiet while the market is rising and loud while holders are capitulating, which is the opposite of the weighting its label implies.

Where today sits in its own history

Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.

For reference, the raw series has ranged from 0.8710 (2022-11-18) to 1.1992 (2026-03-29) across 1,516 days.

What this does not tell you

• SOPR is one of the 15 signals that carried weight on 2026-08-25. On most days it is not the signal that decides anything, and the composite regularly disagrees with it.
• Its calibrated history begins in July 2022, so it carries weight on well under a third of the graded days and has scored exactly one cycle top. Read this signal as a current-conditions instrument, not as one with a track record across cycles.
• A longer SOPR reconstruction exists in this repository and is deliberately not used. It runs structurally higher — a healthy 2016-17 bull printed persistently above 1.02 — and feeding it into these absolute thresholds drips false sell pressure through entire bull markets; when it was tried, a mid-bull test event dropped two grades. The choice is between a short honest series and a long misleading one.
• These thresholds are absolute rather than percentile-normalised, which is the exact practice the MVRV page describes as a rule that works once. That inconsistency is real, it is the reason the longer series stays out, and it is not resolved.
• SOPR is blind to coins that do not move. A holder who decides not to sell leaves no trace in it at all.
• The number that drives the model's allocation is the composite, not this signal. Today's published composite is −0.0060. The current call, and every call before it, is on the call ledger — hash-chained the day it was made and never edited.