Short-term and long-term holder realised price

What recent buyers paid, against what patient holders paid

On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored the cohort cost-basis split at +0.011 — constructive — and gave it an effective weight of 0.030. That is a contribution of +0.0003 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the 10th-largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.

What the cohort cost-basis split is

Realised price splits the coin supply by how long each coin has sat still. Coins that last moved within roughly 155 days belong to short-term holders; everything older belongs to long-term holders. Each group has an average price paid, and those two averages are the two series behind this page.

The interesting object is not either line but the gap. In a normal market recent buyers have paid more than patient ones, because price has risen. When that inverts — when the newest money is, on average, underwater relative to money that has been sitting still for years — something unusual has happened to who owns the supply.

How this model uses it

The signal is built around that inversion, and treats it as a bottom detector. When the short-term cost basis crosses below the long-term one it scores +0.8, or +0.9 when the gap is deep. In the history this data covers, that crossover has occurred at every cycle bottom — near $230 in 2015, near $3,500 in 2018, near $16,000 in 2022 — and essentially nowhere else.

When the crossover cannot fire, the signal falls back to a ratio read of price against the short-term cost basis, interpolated along a fixed curve rather than stepped: price 30% below that basis is the most constructive point on it at +0.55, the curve passes through zero about 15% above the basis, and however far above it price runs the score never gets worse than −0.15. The asymmetry is deliberate. This is a signal designed to recognise a bottom and to stay quiet about tops, and its weight table reflects that: it is one of the few signals in the model that no regime multiplier touches at all, sitting at its base weight in a parabola, a bull, a bear and an accumulation alike.

Where today sits in its own history

Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.

For reference, the raw series has ranged from 0 (2011-01-01) to 114093 (2025-10-09) across 5,717 days.

What this does not tell you

• the cohort cost-basis split is one of the 15 signals that carried weight on 2026-08-25. On most days it is not the signal that decides anything, and the composite regularly disagrees with it.
• The part with the historical record cannot fire in the current market, and may not fire again. The long-term holder cost basis has risen far enough that the short-term basis now sits well above it, so the crossover — the three-for-three mechanism described above — is structurally unavailable and the signal is running on its fallback ratio. A score reported on this page today is the fallback's opinion, not the crossover's.
• Both cohorts are estimates. The 155-day boundary is a convention, not a fact about anybody's intent, and coins move for reasons that have nothing to do with a change of owner. Both series also come from a single provider, which makes them self-consistent — that is what makes comparing them to each other reasonable — but means neither is independently verifiable against a second source.
• The number that drives the model's allocation is the composite, not this signal. Today's published composite is −0.0060. The current call, and every call before it, is on the call ledger — hash-chained the day it was made and never edited.