Bitcoin Stochastic RSI

Momentum measured against its own recent range

On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored Stochastic RSI at −0.600 — cautionary — and gave it an effective weight of 0.030. That is a contribution of −0.0180 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the 3rd-largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.

What Stochastic RSI is

Stochastic RSI is an oscillator applied to an oscillator. A 14-period relative strength index is computed on daily closes; a 14-period stochastic is then computed on that, and the result is smoothed twice with three-period averages into the conventional %K and %D lines.

The question it answers is narrow: where does today's momentum sit inside the range momentum has occupied recently? Zero means at the bottom of its own recent range, 100 at the top. This is not a measure of whether the market is cheap; it is a measure of whether it is locally exhausted.

How this model uses it

Five bands, two-sided. Under 10 scores +0.6 and over 90 scores −0.9. Everything from 20 to 80 scores exactly zero — the model refuses to read anything from mid-range momentum, which is where this indicator spends most of its time and where most of its false signals live.

A crossover term modifies the extremes: if %K crossed up through %D that day, the deep-oversold tier strengthens from +0.6 to +0.9 and the overbought tier softens from −0.9 to −0.6.

It carries one of the smallest base weights in the model, raised by half in a bear market and in accumulation — the regimes where an oversold extreme is worth acting on — and left at nominal everywhere else.

Where today sits in its own history

Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.

What this does not tell you

• Stochastic RSI is one of the 15 signals that carried weight on 2026-08-25. On most days it is not the signal that decides anything, and the composite regularly disagrees with it.
• The crossover term is one-sided, and it only ever argues for staying long. Only a bullish %K/%D cross is detected; there is no bearish equivalent. So the same event amplifies every buy tier and softens every sell tier, which means at an overbought extreme a crossover can make this model less cautious but never more. That asymmetry was inherited from the live implementation and has not been re-derived; it is a rough edge, not a design.
• Double smoothing costs responsiveness. By the time %K clears 90 the move it is describing is several days old, which is fine for a signal weighted this lightly and would not be fine for one weighted heavily.
• Like every indicator on this page derived from price alone, it can only restate the price series in a different shape. It is in the model as a fast counterweight to slow on-chain levels, not as independent evidence.
• The number that drives the model's allocation is the composite, not this signal. Today's published composite is −0.0060. The current call, and every call before it, is on the call ledger — hash-chained the day it was made and never edited.