Value Days Destroyed multiple

Dollar-weighted dormancy, measured against its own trailing year

On 2026-08-25 the Fraktalicious cycle model scored the VDD multiple at 0.000 — neutral — and gave it an effective weight of 0.022. That is a contribution of 0.0000 to the day's raw composite of −0.0060, the 14th-largest of the 15 signals carrying weight today.

What the VDD multiple is

Coin Days Destroyed counts a spend by how long the coin sat still first: moving a coin that has been dormant a year destroys 365 coin-days, moving one bought yesterday destroys almost nothing. It is a way of weighting transactions by the conviction they interrupt rather than by their size.

Value Days Destroyed multiplies that by price, so the quantity is denominated in dollars of dormancy ended. The multiple then divides today's figure by its own trailing 365-day average, which turns an unbounded, spiky series into a readable ratio: 1 is a typical day for the past year, 3 is three times that.

How this model uses it

Two-sided, six tiers, and the thresholds are the whole argument. Above 4 scores −0.9 and above 2.9 scores −0.6; below 0.7 scores +0.4 and below 0.3 scores +0.7, because deep dormancy is accumulation. Between roughly 0.7 and 2 the signal deliberately says nothing.

That neutral zone was widened from 1.5 to 2 after the original calibration was measured dripping sell pressure through an entire healthy bull market. Readings in the 1.5-to-2 band are ordinary mid-bull behaviour, not distribution; only above 2.9 is treated as high-conviction, which is where every pre-2021 cycle top printed sustained readings (2017 peaked near 4).

There is also an absorption override that can silence it outright: if the multiple is scoring bearish while spot-ETF net flows are running above $200 million a day, the score is forced to zero. Old coins moving into strong new demand is a change of owner, not a change of trend.

Where today sits in its own history

Every figure in this table is measured over the model's full graded replay — 5,051 days from 2012-10-27 to 2026-08-25 — and re-measured on every daily refresh.

What this does not tell you

• the VDD multiple is one of the 15 signals that carried weight on 2026-08-25. On most days it is not the signal that decides anything, and the composite regularly disagrees with it.
• Its graded history is under four years old. The model derives this from a coin-days-destroyed series that begins in July 2022 and needs 90 days of it before it can score at all. So the historical case for the thresholds — “every pre-2021 top printed above 2.9” — comes from data the model does not itself consume, and this signal has never scored a cycle top.
• The absorption override is calibrated on the ETF era, which is a single bull market, and it is one-directional: it can only ever mute a cautionary reading, never a constructive one. If it is wrong, it is wrong in the direction of staying invested.
• It carries the smallest base weight of any signal on this site. That is intentional and it should temper how much any single reading here is worth.
• The number that drives the model's allocation is the composite, not this signal. Today's published composite is −0.0060. The current call, and every call before it, is on the call ledger — hash-chained the day it was made and never edited.