Bitcoin's first two-sided cycle on this site's data: a blow-off to $1,135 on 4 December 2013, a crash into the Mt. Gox collapse, and a grinding bear into early 2015. The model's round trips through this cycle were mixed — one cost BTC, one gained it.
Each row is one exit signal, the low the model sat out through, and the re-entry signal that followed. "BTC change" is the exit price divided by the re-entry price: above 1.00× means the round trip bought back cheaper than it sold (a gain in BTC terms); below 1.00× means it bought back higher (a cost), even in cycles the model won overall.
| # | Exit signal | Low reached | Re-entry signal | Days out | BTC change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nov 9, 2013 $331 |
Nov 10, 2013 $328 (-1.1%) |
Apr 10, 2014 $367 |
152 | 0.90× ▼ cost BTC |
| 2 | Aug 10, 2014 $589 |
Aug 18, 2014 $469 (-20.4%) |
Aug 31, 2014 $479 |
21 | 1.23× ▲ gained BTC |
The model exited this cycle far too EARLY, not too late: the first exit fired on 9 November 2013 at $331, and price then ran another 3.4x to its 4 December peak of $1,135. That is why the first round trip above shows a loss in BTC terms — buying back cost more than simply holding would have. It is the clearest instance of a failure the model still has: it cannot reliably tell a parabola that keeps running from a top that is about to break, and it sells into both. The second round trip, later in the same grinding decline, won some of that back.
The cycle's max drawdown (above) reflects Bitcoin's roughest early stretch, before on-chain data existed to inform the model at all — most of this cycle's signal came from price and momentum alone.
Figures are the model's return as a multiple of buy-and-hold over the same window — not a multiple of starting capital. 1.00× is a tie.