The strongest completed cycle by return: 2.09× buy-and-hold. A single long round trip — exiting in March 2021, sitting out for over a year, and re-entering the day after the May 2022 low — does most of the work.
Each row is one exit signal, the low the model sat out through, and the re-entry signal that followed. "BTC change" is the exit price divided by the re-entry price: above 1.00× means the round trip bought back cheaper than it sold (a gain in BTC terms); below 1.00× means it bought back higher (a cost), even in cycles the model won overall.
| # | Exit signal | Low reached | Re-entry signal | Days out | BTC change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 31, 2021 $58,792 |
May 11, 2022 $28,797 (-51.0%) |
May 12, 2022 $29,031 |
407 | 2.03× ▲ gained BTC |
The exit predates the better-known November 2021 double top; the model was already defensive well before that second high printed. The subsequent hold-out spanned the Terra/Luna and Celsius/3AC unwinds, which is most of why the drawdown avoided is the largest of any round trip on this site.
One long, patient round trip is a different shape of win than a series of shorter ones — worth noting because it means this cycle's result rests on a single decision holding up, not on several independent ones.
Figures are the model's return as a multiple of buy-and-hold over the same window — not a multiple of starting capital. 1.00× is a tie.