FRAKTAL·ICIOUS
Historical simulation

The 2023–2026 cycle — open

The current, OPEN cycle. Nothing below is a finished result — the multiple, the drawdown figures, and every round trip are a snapshot of a cycle still in progress.

Max drawdown, model vs. buy-and-hold
-24.0% vs -53.1%
Peak-to-trough decline over the Jan 1, 2023–Sep 3, 2026 window. Shallower is better.
Return vs. buy-and-hold (running)
1.79×
A multiple OF buy-and-hold's return over the same window, not of starting capital — beat buy-and-hold.

Round trips this cycle

Each row is one exit signal, the low the model sat out through, and the re-entry signal that followed. "BTC change" is the exit price divided by the re-entry price: above 1.00× means the round trip bought back cheaper than it sold (a gain in BTC terms); below 1.00× means it bought back higher (a cost), even in cycles the model won overall.

# Exit signal Low reached Re-entry signal Days out BTC change
1 Sep 17, 2025
$116,576
Feb 5, 2026
$63,495 (-45.5%)
Feb 12, 2026
$66,222
148 1.76× ▲ gained BTC
2 May 10, 2026
$82,257
Jun 2, 2026
$66,541 (-19.1%)
Jun 3, 2026
$64,233
24 1.28× ▲ gained BTC
3 Jun 16, 2026
$65,638
Jun 30, 2026
$58,525 (-10.8%)
Jul 19, 2026
$64,653
33 1.02× ▲ gained BTC
4 Aug 20, 2026
$73,071
Aug 20, 2026
$73,071
not yet re-entered in progress
Dates and prices are the model's signal dates, not intraday extremes. "Low reached" is the lowest close during the time the model was out, which is not always the same day the re-entry signal fires.

In this cycle

Three round trips have completed so far and a fourth is open (see the table): the September 2025 exit ahead of the cycle's top, and two shorter, choppier round trips through 2026 as the model moved in and out around a volatile range. The most recent exit has no re-entry date yet.

A cycle this young has less data behind its multiple than the three completed ones — treat the figure above as provisional, not as a fourth data point on equal footing with 2013–2015, 2015–2018 or 2019–2022.

Other cycles

2013–2015
2.03×
2015–2018
1.08×
2019–2022
2.23×
2023–2026 · this page
1.79× (open)

Figures are the model's return as a multiple of buy-and-hold over the same window — not a multiple of starting capital. 1.00× is a tie.

Fraktalicious Research · Call ledger · Privacy
All figures on this page come from a historical SIMULATION of the model's rules against past price and on-chain data, not a live trading track record. Nothing on this site is financial advice, personalised, or a price prediction.