The current, OPEN cycle. Nothing below is a finished result — the multiple, the drawdown figures, and every round trip are a snapshot of a cycle still in progress.
Each row is one exit signal, the low the model sat out through, and the re-entry signal that followed. "BTC change" is the exit price divided by the re-entry price: above 1.00× means the round trip bought back cheaper than it sold (a gain in BTC terms); below 1.00× means it bought back higher (a cost), even in cycles the model won overall.
| # | Exit signal | Low reached | Re-entry signal | Days out | BTC change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 17, 2025 $116,576 |
Feb 5, 2026 $63,495 (-45.5%) |
Feb 12, 2026 $66,222 |
148 | 1.76× ▲ gained BTC |
| 2 | May 10, 2026 $82,257 |
Jun 2, 2026 $66,541 (-19.1%) |
Jun 3, 2026 $64,233 |
24 | 1.28× ▲ gained BTC |
| 3 | Jun 16, 2026 $65,638 |
Jun 30, 2026 $58,525 (-10.8%) |
Jul 19, 2026 $64,653 |
33 | 1.02× ▲ gained BTC |
| 4 | Aug 20, 2026 $73,071 |
Aug 20, 2026 $73,071 |
not yet re-entered | — | in progress |
Three round trips have completed so far and a fourth is open (see the table): the September 2025 exit ahead of the cycle's top, and two shorter, choppier round trips through 2026 as the model moved in and out around a volatile range. The most recent exit has no re-entry date yet.
A cycle this young has less data behind its multiple than the three completed ones — treat the figure above as provisional, not as a fourth data point on equal footing with 2013–2015, 2015–2018 or 2019–2022.
Figures are the model's return as a multiple of buy-and-hold over the same window — not a multiple of starting capital. 1.00× is a tie.